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New Delhi, January 8: India’s GDP growth in FY26 may exceed the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate after the government revises the base year, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
The report said the NSO’s first advance estimate projects GDP growth at 7.4 per cent in FY26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY25. It estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3 per cent, while nominal GDP growth stands at 8 per cent.
SBI Sees Higher Growth After Base Year Revision
SBI expects FY26 GDP growth to reach around 7.5 per cent, with an upward trend once the base year shifts to 2022–23. The report stated that base year revisions often raise growth estimates.
“Growth could rise further after the release of the new base year,” the report noted.
The second advance estimates, scheduled for February 27, 2026, will include more data. SBI expects changes in the figures after revisions.
GDP Estimates Align With Past Trends
SBI highlighted that the difference between RBI and NSO GDP estimates usually remains within 20–30 basis points. It described the 7.4 per cent growth estimate as realistic.
The report added that growth will likely boost per capita national income. SBI expects it to increase by Rs 16,025, reaching Rs 2,47,487 in FY26.
Sector-Wise Growth Outlook
- Agriculture and allied sectors may grow by 3.1 per cent, lower than last year’s 4.6 per cent.
- The services sector remains the main growth driver. SBI projects 9.1 per cent growth, up from 7.2 per cent.
- The industry sector may grow by 6.0 per cent, supported by 7.0 per cent manufacturing growth.
- Mining activity could slow, with growth slipping to 0.7 per cent from 2.7 per cent in FY25.
Further Revisions Possible
SBI reiterated that GDP estimates may change again after fresh data and the base year revision. The bank advised watching upcoming releases closely.
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